Bowl Projections: Post-Week 10 Edition

As the calendar turns to November, we have enough information to start making some semi-educated guesses at what the bowl season is going to look like. For the sake of this exercise we’re going to assume all the favorites are winning, which is definitely not going to happen but is the simplest way to approach this. After working through the BCS selection process, we’ll go over the rest of the bowls.

BCS Title Game (January 6): Alabama vs. Oregon

If both teams win out, they’re going to be top two because the strength of Oregon’s closing schedule (Stanford, Oregon State and then likely UCLA or Arizona State in the title game) will allow it to pull past from Florida State (a struggling Florida team and then a not great opponent in the ACC title game). If one of these two lose, the Noles move on up.

Keep the faith, Tallahassee, Columbus and Waco: Going into the second weekend of November last season there were four undefeated teams. Eight days later, there was only one.

Rose Bowl (January 1): Ohio State vs. Stanford

Ohio State is locked in as Big Ten champions, and the Rose takes Stanford as an at-large replace Oregon. Should the Cardinal lose three or more games, this is a potential landing spot for a few other interesting teams, including Clemson, Notre Dame or a second Big 12 team.

Orange Bowl (January 3): Florida State vs. Central Florida

Florida State heads here as the ACC champion, and then things immediately get interesting. After the Sugar takes a replacement for Alabama and the Rose gets to replace Oregon, the Orange gets the first shot at an at-large team. They could go with a second Big Ten team (Wisconsin or Michigan State, potentially), a second Big Twelve team, American conference runner-up Louisville or American Conference champion Central Florida. UCF has the second-largest enrollment in the country, meaning they should be able to sell tickets for a major bowl a few hours away. I’m saying the Orange goes with the Knights, but if you think they’d prefer the Badgers or Spartans, I wouldn’t argue with you.

Sugar Bowl (January 2): Auburn vs. Clemson

To replace Alabama, the Sugar can go with any number of teams, but it’s a safe bet to say they’ll go SEC. But which team? A&M, Missouri, South Carolina and LSU could all end up here, but I’m going with Auburn simply because I think their closing schedule (at Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama) is the most conducive to finishing the season with only two losses. They get paired against Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins, whose Tigers will be 10-2 at worst.

Fiesta Bowl (January 1): Baylor vs. Fresno State

Baylor goes here automatically as Big 12 champion, but that title could easily go to Texas, Oklahoma or Oklahoma State as that conference is far from settled. Fresno State earns an automatic bid by being a non-BCS conference champ who finishes ahead of a BCS champion (Central Florida, in this case) and in the Top 16, so the Fiesta is obligated to select them here. If Fresno State loses and Northern Illinois wins out, you will likely see the Huskies here.

And here are the rest of the bowls. A * denotes a team filling in for another conference that couldn’t fulfill all of its bowl obligations:

Gildan New Mexico Bowl

Albuquerque, NM – December 21

Pac-12 No. 7 vs. MW No. 4 or 5

Arizona vs. Colorado State

Las Vegas Bowl

Las Vegas, NV - December 21

MW No. 1 vs. Pac-12 No. 5

Boise State vs. USC

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Boise, ID – December 21

MAC No. 3 vs. MW No. 6

Buffalo vs. Wyoming

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

New Orleans, LA – December 21

C-USA No. 6 vs. Sun Belt No. 1

Tulane vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl St Petersburg

St Petersburg, FL – December 23

C-USA No. 4 vs. AAC No. 6

Rice vs. Toledo*

Sheraton Hawai`i Bowl

Honolulu, HI – December 24

C-USA No. 2 vs. MW No. 5

East Carolina vs. San Diego State

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl

Detroit, MI – December 26

MAC No. 1 vs. Big Ten No. 8

Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana-Monroe*

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl

San Diego, CA – December 26

Army vs. MW No. 2

Notre Dame* vs. Utah State

Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman

Annapolis, MD – December 27

C-USA No. 5 vs. ACC No. 8

Marshall vs. Maryland

Texas Bowl

Houston, TX – December 27

Big Ten No. 6 vs. Big 12 No. 6

Michigan vs. Kansas State

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

San Francisco, CA – December 27

BYU vs. Pac-12 No. 6

BYU vs. Oregon State

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Bronx, NY – December 28

AAC No. 4 vs. Big 12 No. 7

Rutgers vs. West Virginia

Belk Bowl

Charlotte, NC – December 28

AAC No. 3 vs. ACC No. 5

Houston vs. Duke

Russell Athletic Bowl

Orlando, FL – December 28

ACC No. 3 vs. AAC No. 2

Georgia Tech vs. Louisville

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Tempe, AZ – December 28

Big Ten No. 4 of 5 vs. Big 12 No. 4

Minnesota vs. Oklahoma State

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl

Ft Worth, TX – December 30

MWC No. 3 vs. C-USA No.3/Navy

San Jose State vs. Navy

Music City Bowl

Nashville, TN – December 30

SEC No. 7 vs. ACC No. 6

Georgia vs. North Carolina

Valero Alamo Bowl

San Antonio, TX – December 30

Pac-12 No. 2 vs. Big 12 No. 3


Arizona State vs. Oklahoma

Holiday Bowl

San Diego, CA – December 30

Big 12 No. 5 vs. Pac-12 No. 3

Texas Tech vs. UCLA

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

Shreveport, LA – December 31

ACC No. 7 vs. SEC No. 10

Boston College vs. Vanderbilt

Hyundai Sun Bowl

El Paso, TX – December 31st

ACC No. 4 vs. Pac-12 No. 4

Virginia Tech vs. Washington

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Memphis, TN – December 31

C-USA No. 1 or American vs. SEC No. 8 or 9

North Texas vs. Tennessee

Chick-fil-A Bowl

Atlanta, GA – December 31

ACC No. 2 vs. SEC No. 5

Miami (FL) vs. South Carolina

TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl

Jacksonville, FL – January 1

Big Ten No. 4 or 5 vs. SEC No. 6

Nebraska vs. Ole Miss

Heart of Dallas Bowl

Dallas, TX – January 1

Big Ten No. 7 vs C-USA

Iowa vs. Middle Tennessee

Capital One Bowl

Orlando, FL – January 1

Big Ten No. 2 vs. SEC No. 2

Wisconsin vs. LSU

Outback Bowl

Tampa, FL – January 1

Big Ten No. 3 vs. SEC No. 3

Michigan State vs. Missouri

AT&T Cotton Bowl

Arlington, TX – January 3

Big 12 No. 2 vs. SEC No. 3 or 4

Texas vs. Texas A&M

BBVA Compass Bowl

Birmingham, Ala – January 4

SEC No. 8 or 9 vs. American No. 5

Florida vs. Cincinnati

GoDaddy Bowl

Mobile, AL – January 5

Sun Belt No. 2 vs. MAC No. 2

Western Kentucky vs. Ball State

~

Teams currently not bowl eligible we’re projecting to get six wins: Boston College, Bowling Green, Colorado State, Florida (only if they beat Vanderbilt this weekend), Georgia, Iowa, Kansas State, Louisiana-Monroe, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Navy, North Carolina, Ole Miss, Rutgers, San Diego State, San Jose State, Tennessee, Utah State, West Virginia, Washington, Wyoming, Vanderbilt

Notables teams currently not eligible we’re projecting to fall short of six wins: Indiana, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, TCU, Utah, Washington State

via Y! Sports Blogs - Yahoo Sports http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaaf-dr-saturday/bowl-projections-post-week-10-edition-140029697--ncaaf.html