jeudi 31 octobre 2013

Week 9 Lames: Bad, bad Luck, QB hard to trust against Houston

Without Wayne, the Noise is way down on Luck. (USAT)


Each week the Noise highlights 10 somewhat un-obvious names who he believes are destined to implode leave egg on his face. To qualify, each player must be started in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here. If you're a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 8 Lames in the comments section below.


Andrew Luck, Ind, QB (51-percent started)

Matchup: at Hou

Step back and examine Luck's situation. This is his first game without his most dependable weapon, Reggie Wayne . Though T.Y. Hilton is a marvelous deep-threat he is far from the complete receiver Wayne is. His other targets Darrius Heyward-Bey and Coby Fleener , who should never be trusted holding an infant, are not exactly sure-handed. And his running back, Trent Richardson , would likely fall backwards attempting to break through a wall of styrofoam bricks. Worse yet, the Texans rank fourth versus fantasy QBs. Hello, nightmare scenario. The No. 10 passer in per game average, Luck has only one 300-yard game to his name, but largely due to his underrated rushing ability, he's recorded four multi-TD performances this year. Equally impressive, he's increased his completion rate from 54.1 to 61.1. Still, his Week 9 matchup isn't conducive to outstanding fantasy results. Jonathan Joseph is again shutting opponents down. On the year, he's surrendered a 44.4 catch percentage and 62.8 QB rating to his assignments. Overall, the Texans have allowed a lowly 6.47 yards per attempt and a pair of 20-point passers (Philip Rivers and Alex Smith) this season. With their backs against the wall, expect Ed Reed and company to rise to the occasion in a critical AFC South showdown.


Fearless Forecast: 217 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 1 interception, 22 rushing yards, 16.0 fantasy points


LeSean McCoy, Phi, RB (99-percent)

Matchup: at Oak

Shady's second appearance on the Lames list the season would lead many to question my sanity. In a crippling bye week, no person in their right mind is even entertaining the idea of sitting the No. 8 RB (on a per game basis) in all of fantasy, a completely fair perspective. But for the purposes of this self-created game, I'm predicting McCoy owners will get the Charlie Brown trick-or-treatment, receiving an unwanted rock in their Halloween bag. Dennis Allen has done wonders with a Raiders run defense once the butt of many fantasy jokes. Since 2002, Oakland has ranked inside the top-10 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs every season. Unpredictably reversing course this season, it actually ranks in the top-half of fewest points conceded. No rusher has surpassed the 80-yard mark on the ground and only Jamaal Charles in Week 6 has eclipsed 100-total yards against the Silver and Black. Overall, they've surrendered 3.52 yards per carry to RBs this year. Stunning. The last time Nick Foles was under center, Week 7 versus Dallas, the Eagles offense struggled. McCoy finished with respectable numbers in PPR leagues (83 total yards, 6 catches), but his 8.1 points in standard settings failed to stir the drink. On the road, anticipate another lukewarm effort.


Fearless Forecast: 18 carries, 67 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 24 receiving yards, 0 touchdown, 12.1 fantasy points


Ray Rice, Bal, RB (54-percent)

Matchup: at Cle

Generally speaking, no two games are ever the same in the NFL. Injuries, coaching strategies and unforeseen in-game circumstances makes every contest distinctively unique. However, Rice, who tallied a mere 47 yards without a score Week 2 versus Cleveland, could duplicate his previous dreadful effort. Limited by an ankle injury for a time, which forced him into a timeshare with Bernard Pierce , and victimized by a porous offensive line (The Ravens rank No. 31 of 32 in run-blocking per Pro Football Focus), Rice has greatly underwhelmed this season. His 8.9 per game average in standard settings ranks No. 29 among RBs, a far cry from the Round 1 value most paid for. Cleveland, downright nasty against the run early in the season, has come unraveled of late defensively. Over the past five weeks, the Browns have yielded the eighth-most fantasy points to RBs. Still, they've allowed just 3.52 yards per carry to the position on the year. Linebacker Paul Kruger and nose tackle Phil Taylor grade out well-above the league average defending the run. In what will surely be a back-alley scrum of a game, the Raven will have owners saying 'nevermore.'


Fearless Forecast: 15 carries, 56 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 20 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 10.6 fantasy points


Vincent Jackson, TB, WR (91-percent)

Matchup: at Sea

Mom always told me to never eat yellow snow. She also advised me to never start a No. 1 receiver against Richard Sherman in Seattle. And, before you ask, yes, I still live in my parents' basement. Practically matchup proof this season, the once king of inconsistency has become Mr. Reliable, a near miraculous achievement considering Tampa's earlier QB strife. He's often climbed the ladder, hauled in ridiculous one-handed grabs and scored inside the position's top-10. Currently the No. 9 WR in Fantasyland on a per game basis, he's in the midst of his best season yet. Still, speaking as a matchup advocate, V-Jax presents plenty of risk in Week 9. Without Mike Williams , who was placed on injured reserve Tuesday, to act as a buffer and minus a stout run game, he will be the focus of defensive coordinator game-plans moving forward. Seattle's secondary has lived up to the hype this season. Sherman and Brandon Browner rank inside the top-20 in pass coverage per PFF. The former, especially lock-down, has yielded a tidy 53.6 QB rating to his assignments. Overall, only three wideouts have crossed the 75-yard mark against them. The future is bright for Mike Glennon , but in an ear-piercing environment and facing arguably the best defense in the league, the mozzarella stick melts. Subsequently, so will Jackson.


Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 62 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 9.2 fantasy points


Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE (88-percent)

Matchup: vs. Pit

If the unstoppable, top-five version of Gronk resurfaces this week against the league's stingiest pass defense, "The Gronks" cartoon feature is sure to overtake "The Simpsons" as the greatest animated TV series in the history of humanity. Just how asphyxiating have the Steelers been against the pass this year? They've allowed only 19 pass plays of 15-plus yards. That's 31 fewer plays than Chicago has given up in the category in the same number of games. Equally astonishing, no QB has thrown for more than 285 yards and only one passer, Matt Cassell of all people, has thrown for multiple touchdowns against them. Specific to tight ends, no player at the position has totaled seven fantasy points or more versus Pittsburgh, including Martellus Bennett, Jermaine Gresham and Kyle Rudolph. Suffocating. Given Tom Brady's (AKA "The Cowardly Lion's") massive slump and the daunting matchup, the tight end's Week 9 outlook is very ominous. Off his worst fantasy performance (5-2-27-0) since Week 2 of last year, this fantasy wonk isn't particularly high on Gronk.


Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 58 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 8.8 fantasy points


BONUS WEEK 9 LAMES



TEAM HUEVOS PICKS OF THE WEEK


Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their "Lames" (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Wednesdays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?


Reader Record: 27-28


Want to bull rush Brad? Find him on Twitter. Also, check out the Yahoo! Fantasy and Rotoworld crew every Thursday on 'Fantasy Football Live' starting at 6:30 PM ET on NBC Sports Network (Find channel here) and online at Yahoo! Sports (Watch here)






via Y! Sports Blogs - Yahoo Sports http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/fantasy-roto-arcade/week-9-lames-bad-bad-luck-qb-hard-144819271--fantasy.html

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